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Interregional Migration: Laurentides and Lanaudière Regions Most Attractive
According to data from the Institut de la statistique du Québec, more than 213,000 Quebecers, or about 2.8 per cent of the province's population, changed administrative regions of residence between 2009 and 2010. As was the case for the past ten years, the areas neighbouring Montréal benefited the most from interregional migration. Between 2009 and 2010, the Laurentides, Lanaudière, Laval and Montérégie regions were most popular, as their population increased by 0.95, 0.94, 0.74 and 0.46 per cent, respectively, due to migratory exchanges. Seven other administrative regions posted gains in interregional migration, including Gaspésie–Îles-de-la-Madeleine (+0.15 per cent) for the first time in more than 10 years. Six areas posted losses in interregional migration, with Montréal registering the largest loss as 1.28 per cent of its residents moved to other administrative regions. To see the study entitled Panorama des régions du Québec, édition 2011 (in French), click here.
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No Housing Collapse on the Horizon
A recent report published by CIBC World Markets concludes that there is no evidence suggesting a future crash of the Canadian housing market. Rather, it foresees a more modest evolution in residential property prices, due to interest rates that will gradually increase. In addition, the authors explain that with a multi-dimensional real estate market such as Canada's, some popular metrics, such as the average price, can be misleading when assessing the health of the market. For example, according to data from May 2011, if the areas of both Vancouver and Toronto were excluded, the increase in average property price in Canada would decrease from 8.6 per cent to 3.7 per cent, which is much less alarming. Since 2008, the QFREB and the province's real estate boards have been commenting on the evolution of the median prices of properties in their press releases, as opposed to average prices (see: Why Median Price Rather Than Average Price). To read the CIBC report, click here.
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 Bank of Canada Opts for Status Quo
The Bank of Canada (BoC) announced on July 19 that it was leaving its key interest rate unchanged at 1 per cent. The BoC has maintained this rate at 1 per cent since September 2010.
This decision was primarily driven by the unstable economic environment in the United States and Europe. The American economy grew at a slower pace than expected and continues to be restrained by the consolidation of household finances and slow growth in employment. Moreover, the inability of American leaders to quickly agree on a long-term solution to the public debt issue and the ongoing sovereign debt crisis in Europe are contributing to the instability of global financial markets.
If we were to look only at Canada's situation, we would find many factors that support an increase in the key interest rate: inflation, measured by the overall Consumer Price Index (CPI), has been above 3 per cent since March, the economy has created more than 190,000 jobs since the start of the year and economic growth in Canada is largely in line with BoC projections. Finally, the long-term low key interest rate, and the resulting low interest rates, have encouraged households to borrow. Household debt has reached a very high level and a gradual increase in the key interest rate would decrease associated risks.
The next decision regarding the key interest rate will be made public on September 7. To read the official Bank of Canada release, click here.
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Main Economic Indicators - June 2011
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 (1) Proportion of people who responded "Yes" to this question.
Note: Green arrows indicate good news and red arrows indicate bad news. The two arrows indicate stability.
Sources: Bank of Canada, Statistics Canada, Conference Board of Canada and CMHC.
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| © 2011 Québec Federation of Real Estate Boards. All rights reserved. |
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